世界人口The World' s Population


      The first fifty years of the next millennium will be critical for the world's population.  By  2050  population growth should have leveled off, but by then we'll have 10 billion people--two-thirds as many again as we have today.The rate of population growth is something we can choose right now, though: it's not something that just happens, but a matter of human choice. The choice is a complicated one,with many variables, but it remains a choice.

     If we want to prevent a population explosion, we should take action now -or assist the poorer countries to do so. They need better government, better institutions, better labor and capital markets, better schools.

      Anything that increases the value of women's time and adds to the cost of caring for a child makes a woman less likely to have that child. Since big families are often seen as safety nets for illness and old age, improving poor people's access to insurance, pensions and welfare institutions also has a major impact. This can be as simple as rural credit, providing a means of saving. Finally, there is education--both for women and, perhaps even more important, for the next generation of children.

     These steps are there to be taken, but there appear to be some countries that are not seriously trying at the moment. If we cannot achieve that we will certainly not control population.

     That said, I don't feel pessimistic that we are going to run out of resources: we are becoming more efficient at producing food faster than the rate at which population is increasing. There is, however, a risk that we will wreck the environment so effectively that the world will no longer be an attractive place to live. That really would be a dismal outcome, to reach world population equilibrium only to find we'd destroyed the natural environment in the process.


内容:世界氏人口的下一个千年的头50年将是至关重要的世界人口。到2050年,人口增长应趋于平稳,但到那时,我们将有10亿人 - 2的三分之二多,我们再次有各届人口增长速度是我们可以选择现在,虽然:这不是还是发生了,而是一个人选择的问题。选择是一个复杂的,有许多变数,但它仍然是一个选择。如果我们要防止人口爆炸,我们应该现在就采取行动,或协助贫困国家这样做。他们需要更好的政府,更好的体制,更好的劳动力和资本市场,更好的学校。任何增加妇女的时间价值,增加了对儿童的照顾费用会使女性不太可能有这个孩子。由于大家庭往往被视为对老年疾病和安全网,改善穷人获得的保险,养老金和福利机构也有重大影响。这可以认为是简单的农村信贷,提供了抢救措施。最后,还有教育 - 为妇女和,或许更重要的是,儿童的下一代。这些步骤是要采取有,但似乎有些国家未认真目前尝试。如果我们不能做到这一点,我们绝对不会控制人口。不过,我并不感到悲观,我们将运行资源不足:我们正逐渐成为粮食生产的速度快于人口增长的效率更高。然而,一种风险,即我们将破坏环境,以便有效地,世界将不再是一个有吸引力的地方居住。这的确将是一个糟糕的结果,世界人口达到平衡才发现,我们想在这个过程中破坏自然环境。

  世界人口新千年的前50年对世界人口来说是至关重要的,到2050年,世界人口将趋于平稳,但到那时,世界人口将达到100亿,比现在多2 / 3。但人?增长率是我们现在能选择的事:它不是顺应天意而产生的,而是人类的选择。这一选择相当复杂,有许多因素,但它依然是一种选择。要想避免人口爆炸,我们现在就应采取行动 - 或者说应帮助比较穷的国家来控制人口,因为他们需要更好的政府,机构,劳动力及资本市场和学校。任何使一个妇女增加抚养孩子的时间或抚养孩子费用的事都使得那个妇女不太想要这个孩子。由于大家庭经常被认为是年老生病时的安全网,让穷人进一步获得保险,退休金和福利机构的帮助也会在控制人口生育上起重大作用。这可以像农村信用制度那样简单,为人们提供一种储蓄的手段。最后还有教育问题 - 既有对妇女的教育,也有更重要的对下一代的教育。以上这些都是应采取的措施,但看来有些国家目前并没有认真去做,如果我们不能做到这一点,我们就不能控制人口。及,我对我们资源殆尽并不悲观此:我们生产粮食的速度超过了人口增长的速度。,我们也存在这样的危险然而:我们会彻底毁坏环境,以致于地球将不再是一个吸引人居住的地方。那确实是一个可悲的结果:实现了人口的平衡却换来了自然环境的破坏。